The GLD ETF edged higher on Monday as the recent bull run gained momentum, as investors reacted to last week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. It was trading at $395, a few points below the all-time high of $403.

Economic uncertainties, geopolitical risk, and a weaker US dollar continue to fan the bullion’s safe-haven appeal. However, Treasury yields have curbed gold price gains. Investors are now eyeing the US CPI and nonfarm payrolls data slated for release in the new week.

Is the momentum enough to retest the gold price all-time high?

Gold price remains on an uptrend, placing it on track to have its best year since 1979. It has rallied by over 60% ytd, having hit 50 fresh all-time highs during that timeframe. 

After pulling back from the record-high hit in late October and trading within a tight range over the past two weeks, the bulls are at it again. As investors digest December’s Fed interest rate decision, gold price edged higher on Friday to trade about $100 below the record high reached in late October. 

As expected, the US central bank announced its third rate reduction this year while hinting at a pause in the coming months. Usually, an environment of lower interest rates favours the non-yielding bullion. Besides, the rate reduction has occurred at a time when inflation remains elevated above the central bank’s target of 2%. As such, the precious metal is also benefiting from its status as a conventional safe-haven asset.

However, higher Treasury yields have curbed gold price gains. This comes after the Fed hinted at pausing on the rate cuts while forecasting just one reduction in the coming year.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields ended the week at 4.18% as it rebounded from the one-month low hit in late November at 3.96%. Nonetheless, following the interest rate reduction, it lacked enough bullish momentum to break the months-long resistance at 4.20%.

Investors are now keen on the US CPI and nonfarm payroll data slated for release in the new week. Notably, the Fed made its latest decision with an incomplete picture of the country’s inflation and job market. As such, the highly anticipated figures will heighten volatility in the US dollar, Treasury yields, and gold price.

GLD ETF technical analysis

GLD ETF stock chart | Source: TradingView

The SPDR Gold Shares, a leading gold ETF, ended the week in the green following the bulls’ successful efforts of breaking past the weeks-long tight range. On Friday, it hit its highest level since 20th October when it reached its all-time high. With the heightened momentum, the bulls have a chance to retest and surpass its record high of $403. At the time of writing, the GLD gold ETF was trading at $395 after pulling back from its intraday high of $399.50. Besides, the pullback had it ease from the border of the overbought territory at an RSI of 70 to 68.

 In the near term, the buyers’ target is on the asset’s all-time high at $403. As they gather enough momentum to reach and break that resistance, I expect the previous resistance zone of $393 to offer support to GLD gold price. However, a further corrective pullback may activate the lower support along the 25-day EMA at $383.  

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